Forecast Accuracy

Well as I’ve rambled on about in many posts I run a weather reporting website. It seemed to make sense to try and get into prediction using a nonsense mathmatical theory, outlined here.

This page uses a PHP and MySQL scripting to look at the table that stores my predictions, and look at the table holding the actual weather results. This will allow me to judge weather the predictions are accurate.

Statistics

1601 predictions, of which 1335 have been correct, and 266 have been incorrect
Giving a total accuracy of 83.4%

This data is searching a total of 681 unique patterns over a total of 17670 occurances of these patterns

Please note, these predictions ignore the first 100 rows of storm data. This because at this time the system was “learning”

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  1. Pingback: Analysing My Forecasts

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